When a former member of ABBA says a cashless society will have less crime, people listen. Already Sweden has laws restricting cash deposits in banks, as well as 80% of transactions being non-cash (USA is 50%). Read the full story at Wired.
Yes, less banks and bus drivers will be robbed, that is for sure. Muggings will keep occurring, it will just be for Apple Watches instead of cash. Criminals are unlikely to change their profession, but rather just adapt.
I foresee two major problems with losing cash:
Privacy – the very reason why cashless means less monetary crime is that anonymous transactions disappear. This also means that no transactions will be private. Proponents will use the If You Have Nothing to Hide mantra, which will convince most people. And rightly so, for the only people who could really lose out are those on the margins of society, those who have activities in grey areas, that aren’t illegal but still attract unwarranted and undesired attention.
Replacing cash for criminals will be alternate digital systems, like Bitcoin. Money laundering will still happen, it will just be digital.
Redundancy – as someone who has worked it the fields of tech and survivalism, the clear problem with a cashless society is that lack of a backup system. Where’s Plan B? What if electricity is cut? What if hackers destroy the computerised system and the computerised back-up system?
Cashless is going to happen anyway. The important thing is those who need non-criminal transaction privacy are protected, and that a backup system remains in place for a very long time, until cash is completely forgotten.